GICSA

Real Estate Market | 111 E C O N O M Í A ESCENARIO BASE METANÁLISIS CONCEPTO/AÑO 2004 2005 2006 2007e 2008e 2009e 2010e INFLACIÓN Inflación Promedio 4.68% 4.00% 3.63% 3.97% 3.93% 3.65% 3.32% Inflación fin de período 5,19% 3.33% 4.05% 3.80% 3.85% 3.40% 3.30% Inflación Subyacente Prom 3.65% 3.39% 3.26% 3.83% 3.95% 3.57% 3.33% Inflación Subyacente final 3.80% 3.12% 3.61% 3.88% 3.85% 3.40% 3.30% Tasas de interés Fondeo Bancario Promedio 6.61% 9.30% 7.21% 7.21% 7.25% 7.00% 7.25% Fondeo Bancario Final 8.75% 8.25% 7.00% 7.50% 7.00% 7.00% 7.50% Cetes 28 Promedio 6.86% 9.17% 7.19% 7.20% 7.30% 7.10% 7.35% Cetes 28 Fin 8.61% 8.02% 7.02% 7.50% 7.10% 7.10% 7.60% Bono 10 años Promedio 9.60% 9.40% 8.31% 7.78% 7.70% 7.50% 7.55% Bono 10 años final 9.79% 8.23% 7.43% 7.90% 7.50% 7.50% 7.60% TIPO DE CAMBIO MXN Promedio 11.29 10.89 10.91 10.85 11.12 11.36 11.55 MXN Fin de período 11.15 10.63 10.81 11.02 11.22 11.50 11.60 Producción PIB 7,714 8,366 9,156 9,785 10,512 11,365 12,250 PIB (mmmp1993) 1,706 1,754 1,837 1,891 1,957 2,044 2,136 PIB (mmd) 683 768 839 902 945 1,000 1,061 % Real 4.2% 2.8% 4.8% 2.9% 3.5% 4.5% 4.5% Servicios 4.4% 4.0% 4.9% 3.8% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% Producción Industrial 4.2% 1.7% 5.0% 0.9% 2.2% 3.1% 3.1% Manufactura 4.0% 1.4% 4.8% 0.8% 1.5% 2.7% 2.7% Construcción 6.1% 3.3% 7.0% 1.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.5% SECTOR PÚBLICO Balance Público -21.0% -10.2% -93.1% -22.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Balance Público % PIB -0.3% -0.1% -1.0% -0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Balance Público Amplio 200.6 -117.1 -82.4 -185.9 -210.2 -227.3 -245.0 Balance Amplio % PIB 2.6% -1.4% -0.9% -1.9% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% Deuda Pública 1,929 1,958 1,948 1,981 2,013 2,045 2,078 Deuda Pública % PIB 25.0% 23.4% 21.3% 20.2% 19.1% 18.0% 17.0% Deuda Pública Amplia 3.155 3,255 3,365 3,405 3,669 3,955 4,264 Deuda Amplia % PIB 40.9% 38.9% 36.8% 34.8% 34.9% 34.8% 34.8% SECTOR EXTERNO Cuenta Corriente -6.6 -5.2 -2.0 -7.8 -10.9 -14.1 -18.7 % del PIB -1.0% -0.7% -0.2% -0.9% -1.2% -1.4% -1.8% Balanza Comercial (mmd) -8.8 -7.6 -6.1 -10.9 -12.8 -15.3 -19.3 Exportaciones (mmd) 188 214 250 271 291 309 328 % Anual 0.0% 14.0% 16.7% 8.6% 7.1% 6.4% 6.1% Precio Mezcla Mexicana 31.1 42.7 53.1 61.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 TED (mmd) 22.8 21.0 19.2 23.0 19.0 23.0 25.0 % Anual 0.0% 14.0% 16.7% 8.6% 7.1% 6.4% 6.1% Reservas Internacionales FIn 61.5 68.7 67.7 78.0 87.0 95.0 103.0 SECTOR LABORAL Tasa de Desempleo 3.9% 3.6% 3.6% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% Trabajadores IMSS (millones) 12.5 12.9 13.8 14.6 15.4 16.4 17.4 % Anual 0.0% 14.0% 16.7% 8.6% 7.1% 6.4% 6.1% Creación de Empleos (miles) 160 387 824 851 800 1,000 1,000 INTERNACIONALES Inflación EU Fin de Período 3.3% 3.4% 2.5% 3.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.0% PIB EU 3.6% 3.1% 2.9% 2.3% 2.0% 2.5% 2.8% Fed Funds Prom 1.35% 3.20% 4.96% 5.05% 3.88% 3.75% 4.50% Fed Funds Fin 2.25% 4.25% 5.25% 4.25% 3.50% 4.00% 5.00% TSY 10 años Prom 4.26% 4.28% 4.79% 4.61% 4.13% 4.38% 5.00% TSY 10 años Fin 4.22% 436% 4.70% 4.00% 4.25% 4.50% 5.50% EURUSD Prom 1.24 1.24 1.26 1.37 1.47 1.43 1.35 EURUSD FIn 1.36 1.18 1.30 1.49 1.45 1.40 1.30 e: estimado Cifras en Miles de millones de pesos a menos que se indique lo contrario.